(Cool calculations are made about the demographics of each international region, the likely disease patterns, the anti-smoking forces, and thus the prospects for BAT’s business. Felton calculates the total lifetime tar condensate load of different decadal cohorts of men and women, showing the clear relationship to lung cancer incidence in those cohorts the higher the load. The tar load is based on prevalence of smoking and tar content of cigarettes in each decade. Since both smoking rates and tar content are declining, so should lung cancer rates. Felton predicts that men born in 1970 will have less than 2 per 100,000 deaths from lung cancer in the year 2000. The point being made is that when fewer cancer deaths are seen, there will be less pressure on the industry. Hanby predicts excellent prospects for Latin America and Asia, uncertain for the Middle East and Africa, declining for Europe and North America. [NB. This report is dated 1979.]

Notable quotes: Felton – "Whatever the effect of tar levels on mortality rates, it is highly probable that the number of deaths from lung cancer will fall sharply in the next 10-20 years – simply because there will be fewer men at risk." [NB. The inference is that lower rates of smoking and lower tar levels will reduce the absolute numbers; but there can also be the fair imputation that more men will have died off from smoking-caused diseases.] "It must, however, be noted that as female consumption rates of cigarettes approach those of males...it may be impossible to attempt extrapolation [of mortality] for women." " It is, at once, obvious that the increase in smoking by women since the 1949 [sic]-45 War has produced cumulative cigarette consumptions in excess of those previously recorded, even when adjustment is made to the basis of constant tar (1965 = 100). One likely consequence is a continued increase in the mortality rate from lung cancer in women above the current figures before a decline sets in." [NB. Emphasis added.] "Women in the important childbearing years (20-39) appear to have notable consumption levels (20-22 cigarettes per diem). Has it been assumed that the campaign by the HEC aimed at pregnant females will cease?"

Notable quotes: Hanby – "North America..... Economy – Good, probable net increase in disposable incomes, especially amongst coloured population." "Latin America.... General prognosis: An expanding market...the population explosion will still provide ample opportunities." "Far East.... General prognosis: Mortality from smoking-associated disease is low, and this must blunt the edge of the anti-smoking campaign, unless a sharp rise in deaths, especially from lung cancer, is observed. It may well be, however, that the use of filter-tpped low delivery cigarettes allied to fairly low atmospheric pollution will prevent an episode of lung cancer deaths as seen in Europe (and to a lesser extent in the USA) from 1935–." "Africa.... General prognosis: Looks like a difficult market.... By 2000, some territories will present real opportunity (e.g. Nigeria), but for the next decade or two, many will just not have a population with much money to spend on manufactured cigarettes." "Middle East.... The rise of militant Islam poses serious problems. Smoking, and the consumption of alcohol, are forbidden under this creed." "General Overview.... The continuation of the smoking habit will depend upon our ability to combat the activities of the anti-smoking lobby.... It seems to me that the idea of a safe smoke is an illusion, and smokers will always incur a health risk by smoking. The challenge is to reduce that risk to acceptable proportions. By ‘acceptable proportions’, I mean that the smoker comes to believe that, on balance, the benefits he receives from smoking outweigh the risks incurred." [NB. Emphasis added.] "Conclusions.... Free World sales...will show annual growth of approximately 2.5% for the next ten years and continued growth of about 1.5% until the year 2000."

(A South African Ear, Nose and Throat physician wants money to organize a conference for medical experts who do not believe smoking causes lung cancer. He is listened to politely.)

Notable quotes: "The reputation of the participants [at such a conference] might be at risk.... The speakers could be accused of having be[en] ‘bought’ by the industry.... likely to pose P.R. problems." "If the involvement of the tobacco companies could be sufficiently disguised, then there may be some PR advantages to b e had." [NB. This position was taken by R.L.O. Ely of public affairs, and L.C.F. Blackman, director of research and development.] "I believe it would be unwise to attack the epidemiological foundation of the smoking and health controversy, not only because I do not believe that the epidemiological case can e seriously weakened, but also because we ourselves are beginning to use such evidence in our own defence. We have already used the Dean study to demonstrate the health advantage of filter tips.... The lung cancer rates in the UK have already begun to decling, and we may one day wish

third parties to use this epidemiological evidence to demonstrate success in producing a safer product." "If BKSD wants to attack the epidemiology, and give these theories another airing, then we should not discourage him from doing so. But don’t give him any money."

(A strategic public affairs analysis of how to combat the threat to the industry’s profitability and growth. The Chairman summarized at the end.)

Notable quotes: "We have to recognise that there is a statistical association between smoking and certain diseases.... The industry needs to review its current attitude in the light of the lewgal position." "The effect of smoking on pregnant women and on children are not fully understood and are a matter for concern." "The German example indicates that the industry’s greatest ally is its consumer. The Verband shows that a dialogue through third parties with the scientific community on the health aspects of smoking can reflect well on the industry and avoid isolation." "Examination of the motivations of anti-smoking grops and individuals can be helpful to us. Their interests are sometimes different from those of government officials. That is why it is possible for the industry to isolate the extremists and work successfully with governments. The success of the anti-smokers depends upon persuading the community to see the industry as a wickedly dangerous dragon." "[In] rapidly-developing countries, smoking and health is an imported issue. There is a need to take pre-emptive action and to ensure that smoking and health is not interpreted as a multinational issue. Otherwise smoking and health will be used by the anti-smoking lobby as a weapon against BAT. The recognition by host communities that BAT companies identify [sic] their interests with aims and aspirations will continue to b e a key element in company progress."

(A review of the increasing actions against the industry by governments, WHO, Cancer Societies, with respect to advertising, warning labels, restrictions on public smoking, etc. The document lays out the strategy that, in retrospect, has been largely carried out over the following thirty years. One idea that fell away was the prospect that a "smoke in moderation" campaign would show the industry in good light, and would have little impact on smoking in any case.)

Notable quote: "The over-riding policy of B.A.T. is to discourage and delay the process of restrictive legislative action by governments in every way possible so as to allow maximum time for research to establish the precise relationship between cigarette smoking and lung cancer and other diseases so that the possibility of any injury to the smoker’s health can be diminished or eliminated." [NB. Compare to later statements of 1980s and 90s.] "While in the past it has seemed good sense for the industry to contest the validity of all the evidence against smoking (and may still be necessary to avoid damages in law suits), there is little doubt that the inflexibility of this attitude is beginning to create in some countries hostility and even contempt for the industry among intelligent, fair-minded doctors." "...Appeals to children such as sweets, toys, children’s games or children’s gramophone records should of course be avoided." "The publication of tar and nicotine tables seems relatively harmless. Publication of such figures may indeed be of real help to the industry sicne they give nervous smokers an opportunity to continue to smoke with what they see as relative safety. The industry should however never put itself in the position that by offering to the public tar/nicotine figures it is implying that some cigarettes are ‘safer’‘. If there is to be any suggestion of this, it must come from the government."

(The research by Battelle on the effects of nicotine on the brain and hormones is well described by Stanton Glantz, et al., The Cigarette Papers (Berkeley: University of California Press, 1996), pp. 62-70, projects known as HIPPO I and HIPPO II. But two quotes are worth mentioning.)

Notable quotes: "If nicotine were not known its discovery would be claimed as one of the great medical advances of the day." "The important result of this research HIPPO is that it gives an experimental basis for believing that the tobacco industry is carrying out an essential and valuable service for the public."

(See Glantz, et al., The Cigarette Papers, pp. 441-42. See also Green’s "coming out" on the BBC TV 1 program Panorama -- "A Dying Industry"-- 14 April 1980 (see BAT (File no. FC1096) 301140234 - 268, the entire script.)

(A complete set of strategies with the word "Secret" stamped in multiple diagonals acros every page. Forty seven assumptions are provided – predictions, really – about the world of tobacco and anti-tobacco, research and product development, markets and competition, health statistics, ETS, compensation, legislative restrictions, etc., etc. The predictions are remarkably prescient, hardly off the mark from today’s vista. The resulting strategies stress "social awareness and responsibility, a less intransigent approach to dealing with the evidence of ill-health produced by smoking, stress on free choice of a legitimate product made by a legitimate industry, resistance to bans on advertising, increase in sales taxes, "unreasonable" restrictions on public smoking. Twenty five brief position papers are appended, from "advertising" to "wood." Despite the Board’s resolution to be less intransigent, every single allegation against tobacco, its use, its marketing, its consequences are refuted in language entirely similar to the defense in every lawsuit brought against the industry since 1954.

Notable quotes: "Above all we must ensure that we never knowingly mislead our consumers and staff and we as manufacturers must be able to demonstrate that we are acting responsibly and have concern for their interests at all times." [NB. S.G. Green had resigned from the Board only months before – indeed, some of the material in this document reflect his writings – and the Board must have considered that staff need as much convincing by policy statements as consumers and government.] "Companies should encourage the separation of nicotine from tar in the minds of those in authority and of the public." "Smoking and the Pill.... This allegation [that women on oral contraceptives who smoke have a much higher rate of cardiovascular accidents than no-smokers on the pill] may well be based on an accidental correlation in that oral contraceptives may have been adopted first by ‘liberated’ women who are more likely to be smokers....use of oral contraceptives is more toxic than smoking." "We do not...believe that the WHO should interfere in the internal affairs of those countries."

(Chairman of UST, Louis Bantle, approached "Mr. Sheehy" seeking a collaboration in world wide marketing with BAT, having received overtures from other companies. The analysis is positive, particularly for North America and Scandinavia. Finacial analyses follow: Net earnings) per share $4.16, average market share price $34.25, average P/E 8.2.)

Notable quotes: "Any product category which would allow us to sell the industry’s basic product, tobacco, and its essential ‘USP’ (so far), nicotine satisfaction, as a ‘treat not a treatment’ must be of interest. Though not immune to health and social pressures and restrictions, if there was a fair chance it could fare less badly than would cigarettes or any form of smoking it might be a good bet to defend the industry and its basic product.... If in these markets a substantial ‘Smokeless’ category repelled the onslaught of cigarettes and then began to grow again by itself after over 50 years of total neglect and virtually no support from the manufacturers in the form of either product development and suitable beginners products, or marketing and advertising activity, it must deserve attention." "To a rapidly developing youth market, it offers a real masculine-macho life-style image that must be beginning to make Marlboro look like a phoney."

"Clinical tests so far appear to give ‘Smokeless Tobacco’ a clean bill of health."